Odinga’s Potential Departure Sparks Power Struggle in Azimio Coalition

Raila Odinga’s potential departure from Kenyan politics has stirred a hornet’s nest within the Azimio la Umoja coalition, particularly regarding the vacant position of Official Leader of the Opposition.

Odinga’s recent declaration of interest in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship has ignited debate among affiliate parties vying for the opposition leadership role. While no such position has been formally established, conflicting opinions have already surfaced. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka enjoys support from his camp to automatically assume the role if it materializes before the 2027 elections. However, ODM, represented by Deputy Party Leader Wycliffe Oparanya, argues that the position should belong to the party with the highest number of elected MPs, effectively excluding Martha Karua, Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 poll due to her party’s lack of representation. Nonetheless, Karua’s supporters propose reserving a deputy position for her.

Oparanya, leveraging ODM’s position as the largest party within the Azimio coalition, expresses his own interest in the role. Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi also emerges as a contender due to his role as the National Assembly’s Minority Leader. On the other hand, Musyoka’s camp believes their leader should be the automatic choice due to the alleged consensus within the coalition to make him the 2027 presidential candidate. They assert that Karua could serve as a deputy. However, ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna dismisses discussions about succession, citing Odinga’s lack of retirement announcement.

Further complicating the scenario, Odinga’s potential AUC role raises concerns about workload and leadership continuity. While he assures his followers that capable leaders within both ODM and Azimio can guide the coalition in his absence, questions regarding his party’s leadership remain unanswered. Two deputy party leaders, Oparanya and former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho are potential contenders. Within the broader Azimio coalition, Musyoka positions himself as the 2027 presidential candidate partnering with DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa as a potential running mate.

Adding another layer of intrigue, Joho declared his own 2027 presidential ambitions under the ODM banner, prompting ODM National Chairman John Mbadi to announce a Central Committee meeting upon Odinga’s return from Germany. Meanwhile, Siaya Governor James Orengo believes Odinga can effectively manage both roles, arguing that his continental position shouldn’t restrict his rights.