Decoding Raila Odinga’s Hidden Advantage in AU Leadership Contest

President William Ruto and other high-ranking government officials have been quietly seeking support from regional leaders for Kenya’s bid for the top position at the African Union Commission (AUC) during their trips abroad.

According to reliable insiders, there have been confidential engagements between President Ruto, opposition leader Raila Odinga, and former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo. These top-level talks have been ongoing with the recent AU meeting in Ethiopia being the latest stage of their multifaceted effort. Insider sources indicate that President Ruto faced hurdles and was in an uneasy position because he could not confirm Kenya’s selection until he secured outward assurance from Mr Odinga that he wouldn’t rescind his backing. Mr Odinga has allegedly refrained from making any concrete pledges and has undertaken a personal mission to establish a strong voter base before officially confirming his candidacy.

The African Union Commission (AUC) assumes responsibility for the everyday operations of the African Union, and the chairman wields considerable administrative authority within the organization. The President and Mr Odinga joined forces as part of the Mombasa peace agreement which was facilitated by Mr Obasanjo and approved by AUC chairperson Mr Moussa Faki Mahamat. In the wake of last year’s government protests which led to casualties, injuries, arrests, and property destruction, the AU requested Mr Obasanjo to mediate between the two factions. It is disclosed that one of the resolutions reached during the confidential engagement in Mombasa was for Kenya to back Mr Odinga for the AU position, despite his previous loss to Mr Faki in 2017.

This agreement was reached simultaneously with the formation of the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) which intended to tackle debatable matters, such as the demand for fair elections after the controversial 2022 presidential polls. According to reliable government sources, Prime Cabinet Secretary and Minister of Foreign Affairs Musalia Mudavadi is spearheading efforts to back Mr Odinga’s candidacy. During his recent trip to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mr Mudavadi took the opportunity to advocate for East Africa’s support. He believes that it is the opportune moment for the Eastern Africa region to take the lead in the AU.

Mr Mudavadi emphasizes that the Central, Southern, and Western Africa regions have already had their chance since 2002, and now it is time for the Eastern and Northern Africa regions to step up. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has been nominated to become a member of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition summit. Along with other opposition members, he is poised to join in the campaign to advance the candidacy of Mr Odinga throughout Africa. For Musyoka, this is just another opportunity for him to undertake a familiar responsibility. Azimio principles have officially supported Odinga’s proclaimed bid and are fully set to put the team’s plan into place to acquire support through their extensive networks of contacts all over the region.

Senate Minority leader Stewart Madzayo says that leaders across the continent have pledged their support for Mr Odinga and guaranteed their votes. He highlights that despite his position in Addis Ababa, Mr Odinga will remain a committed member and leader of the ODM party with no legal limitations on his participation in active politics. Senator Madzayo also affirms that if Mr Odinga decides to run for President in 2027, they will be ready to welcome and endorse him, recognizing him as the most suitable candidate to lead the country.

The former Prime Minister is said to have sought the counsel of his allies following his initial announcement. A trusted ally of Mr Odinga, speaking on condition of anonymity, reveals that the government has committed to providing financial backing for Odiga’s diplomatic endeavours throughout Africa. The Nyanza legislator emphasizes President Ruto’s unwavering determination to secure Mr Odinga’s triumph in this role. With his esteemed reputation and adeptness at garnering support from Heads of State and Governments, Mr Odinga possesses a significant advantage in promoting his candidacy across the continent.

ODM Secretary General and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna believe the party leader will effortlessly integrate this new role into his already vast duties. Sifuna commends Mr Odinga’s multi-skilled abilities, citing his past experience as the High Representative for Infrastructure Development in Africa while simultaneously fulfilling his duties as an opposition leader.