As the United States anticipates Donald Trump’s potential return to the presidency, Canada is strategically preparing its border security and immigration policies to mitigate potential transnational impacts.
The Canadian government is particularly focused on addressing the potential consequences of Trump’s promised mass deportations, which could significantly increase migration pressures along the extensive 5,525-mile shared border. Trump has signalled aggressive economic and immigration measures, including a proposed 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, to be implemented immediately upon his inauguration. In a statement on his Truth social media platform, Trump explicitly linked the tariff to combating illegal immigration and drug trafficking, declaring that the measure would remain in effect until drug importation and unauthorized border crossings cease.
The Canadian government has responded with a measured diplomatic approach. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc have issued statements emphasizing the traditionally strong bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has personally engaged with Trump through what was described as a “constructive” conversation to address potential tensions. Ottawa’s preparations have been methodical and multifaceted. The government has been engaging with Trump’s team for weeks, with a primary focus on immigration policy.
This represents a significant shift from the 2017 era when Trudeau welcomed refugees affected by Trump’s previous executive orders. The current stance is markedly different, with Immigration Minister Marc Miller explicitly stating that “not everyone is welcome here.” In response to anticipated pressures, Canada has already implemented strategic adjustments to its immigration framework. The country has reduced temporary foreign worker and student visas and lowered the permanent residency quota. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are on high alert, considering increased personnel and technological investments to manage potential border challenges.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has reinforced Canada’s commitment to reducing immigration targets, while opposition parties like the New Democratic Party advocate for a more humanitarian approach to potential migrant influxes. Despite these preparations, Canadian officials maintain a diplomatic tone, emphasizing continued cooperation with US authorities. The migration dynamics have notably transformed in recent years. While irregular border crossings were previously characterized by individuals entering Canada to seek asylum, the trend has reversed. In fiscal year 2024, US authorities apprehended 198,929 migrants at the Canadian border, a notable increase from 32,376 in 2024.
Trump and his supporters attribute this surge to the Biden administration’s policies. Trump’s incoming administration has already signalled heightened concerns about cross-border migration. Tom Homan, slated to be the next “border czar,” has identified the northern border as a critical national security priority. Drawing from his background in upstate New York, Homan has emphasized the need for more rigorous border control, noting the comparatively less stringent policing of the Canadian border.
