Global temperatures have soared to unprecedented heights over the past two years, challenging scientific expectations and leaving experts searching for answers.
This dramatic rise, characterized by record-breaking heatwaves, prompts a reassessment of existing climate models and suggests potential shifts within the Earth’s climate system that remain inadequately understood.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, an extraordinary increase in global temperatures since mid-2023 has led to 2023 and 2024 being recognized as the hottest years in recorded history.
Despite ongoing investigations, the scientific community has yet to fully grasp the specific causes of this warming anomaly. Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, emphasizes the unexpected nature of this temperature surge, asserting that “Warming in 2023 was head-and-shoulders above any other year, and 2024 will be as well.”
The continuous escalation in global temperatures is closely tied to the long-term increase in fossil fuel emissions, which release greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide that trap heat in the atmosphere. This trend is further complicated by both natural phenomena and human activities that are pushing the planet into unknown territory. The extreme heat witnessed between June 2023 and September 2024 has prompted further investigation into various factors influencing this climatic shift.
Changes in cloud patterns, air pollution, and the Earth’s carbon storage capacity are among the elements being assessed. However, experts caution that a comprehensive understanding of these mechanisms may take additional years to develop. A key contributor to the recent warming may be the transition from a rare, three-year La Niña event—which produced a cooling effect—to an El Niño event in mid-2023, which has released heat stored in the oceans.
Although El Niño reached its peak in January, the prolonged period of elevated temperatures raises questions about the long-term implications for global climate patterns. Researchers are also examining the potential impact of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping fuels, which began in 2020. This reduction may have lessened cloud reflectivity, allowing more sunlight to penetrate the atmosphere and warm the Earth’s surface.
Compounding these issues is the concern over weakened carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, which are crucial for mitigating climate change. The persistence of high temperatures even after the peak of the El Niño event suggests that additional, yet unidentified factors may be influencing these trends. Robert Vautard from the UN’s climate expert panel has noted the critical need for further investigation to accurately assess the situation.
